Where Do We Go From Here?

As noted in a previous entry, Apple was unusually quiet over the winter holiday period.   Now we know why. Without even a single media peep or product announcement, they were quietly racking up the biggest earnings quarter in company history; the second biggest sales quarter in history for ANY company.

iPads are where we go...

The numbers include over $46 billion in revenue and $13 billion in profit. 37 million iPhones and over 15 million iPads were sold. It's going gangbusters in Cupertino.

Can they sustain it? Armed with these results, most "financial analysts" are bleating yes and predicting 2012 will be another stellar year. The rumours continue to swirl about new iPhone and iPad models, and with these two products alone accounting for 75% of Apple's business, one can't help but agree with the sheep.

The iPad is where it's all at and the vehicle Apple will drive hard to sustain their massive growth. Watch Apple's do as they successfully did with the iPhone — hold on to the older iPad 2 model and drop the price to $349 to create an entry level product and then introduce the faster iPad 3 as a premium option with a high-density display and Siri voice control features. Two models means twice the sales. Throw in their recent digital textbook announcement and school boards will be gobbling up the cheaper iPad 2. There's no limit here, only sky. Say goodbye to the PC — the tablet IS how it will be and Apple will innovate and market the hell out of the iPad models to ensure everyone comes around to their vision of the future. Siri voice control will play a huge part in that future and so will the iCloud sync services. And don't forget about a possible entry into the TV market. Apple is in the business of 'screens of all sizes to access your digital life' and TV is the next logical step. They've had plenty of fine tuning time with AppleTV.  Whatever they come up with, it will first disrupt, then confuse, be dismissed and eventually become the industry gold standard.  

Speaking of the new textbook announcement, the whole Education Event in NY felt lacking in the usual Apple flair. When first appearing on stage, Phil Schiller looked shell shocked, as though someone had just told him his dog died. It was a rocky start and throughout the presentation, the usual Apple buzz was missing.

Everyone talks about the focussed intensity and innovation that Steve Jobs brought to the company and how Apple will miss his leadership, but I say it is salesmanship, not leadership they will and already are missing. No one could SELL an idea like Steve. Not Phil Schiller or Eddy Cue. We craved whatever Steve was demonstrating. I didn't get that feeling from this presentation until long after it was over and I had a chance to play with the iBooks 2 and iTunes U apps myself. Then I got it. The good news is that Apple products still sell themselves once you get your hands on them. But, Steve's gift was to ensure you wanted to get your hands on them as soon as possible.

Salesmanship. That's what Apple will truly miss.

Where The Music Matters

John Richards gets real excited
 Photo courtesy of KEXP

John Richards is the best reason to tune in to KEXP. Not to take away from the great shows the other KEXP DJ's produce, but John Richards is the ringleader, the maverick, the voice of the radio station. Listening to his morning show streaming from Seattle is like being back in university and hanging out in the dorm room of the guy who had the killer sound system and a vast and eclectic record collection. Time spent in that room was an education in itself and John's that perfect teacher — a geek, a romantic, a rebel. He's funny and irreverent; his taste in music is stellar. Woven into each show are the instincts of an artist and great storyteller, each song choice revealing a new dimension to the tale or shading in a character's traits. Random computer generated music selections do not exist. What you get is a human being expressing himself through his musical taste, whims and encyclopedic knowledge in an attempt to connect deeply with his audience.

Name a radio station where you can eMail in a request and the DJ will personally eMail you back? Or a station that will play a song twice in a row — just because they can? If you tune in to KEXP over the next few days, you might catch John playing The Lumineers Hoy Hey which, as far as he's concerned, is the best song of early 2012. Which is why he plays it twice, back to back. That's the secret — spontaneity. He'll play Chet Baker because good friends just informed him via Twitter they had a baby and named him Chet. And then follow it up with The Replacements' I Will Dare.

It's live and interactive. It's the complete freedom to play vinyl. It's humorous and it's touching. His tribute show to his mother after her death was the most moving four hours of radio ever. It was the first time I heard Jeff Buckley's rendition of Hallelujah. I was compelled to stop what I was doing and just listen.

I was mesmerized the first time he played Death Cab For Cutie's Transatlanticism. By the end of the day I had the album. It was like that for Of Monsters and Men and Sigur Ros, for The Joy Formidable and The Decemberists.

KEXP is how radio used to be before it became formulated. It's a living, breathing, sweating organism. It's rock and roll, it's punk, it's jazz, it's Johnny Fever and WKRP in Cincinnati.  The morning show visits unexpected places. Sometimes it is a horrible failure and John knows when that happens. It's all part of the charm and mystery — he just may fall flat on his face. It's something you'll never get with an iPod. I love the immediate access to all my music, but an iPod playlist never tells me a story. The Genius feature in iTunes is less genius and more disappointing. It will create a playlist of random music based on genre and song tempo, but it never takes a leap that surprises me.

I began to tune in to KEXP while sitting at my desk at my previous job. Being on the west coast and three hours behind meant John was just starting his show when I'd be getting down to my work at 9:00 a.m. While in Seattle last year, my wife and I dropped by the station to contribute our annual donation in person. KEXP is public radio which means they subsist on donations and funding. There are no commercials to pay the bills (another reason why listening is such a pleasure). Upon learning that we'd come all the way from Ontario, the very kind KEXP'ers gave us a full tour, showing us every room and broom closet. We had a chance to talk with the staff who seemed genuinely interested in our story. They stopped their work, said hello, asked questions. These are people with purpose, crammed into a very tight building to do their work and who view running this station as a noble cause. Where The Music Matters is their mission statement and behind it is a passionate commitment to ensuring music does not go the route of indifferent automation, but retains its originality and human soul.

I didn't get to formally meet John that day. He was in a production meeting when we arrived. However, as we were wrapping up our tour, he passed us in the hall and flashed a shy smile. My instinct was to stick my hand out and say, "John!  Love the show!" but it felt intrusive and with part of me inside shrieking like a hysterical teenage girl as the guy who I've spent so many mornings with walked by, I needed to play it cool.

I am content to keep listening each morning and share the occasional eMail exchange. I plan my work around John's show — it is the very best way to start the day. I am continually inspired by his unwavering belief that by playing music that would rarely get airplay anywhere else, by sharing his daily musical story and journey, he is making the world a better place.

And he is.

Quiet To The Core

Speak softly and carry a big RAM stick

The five weeks between U.S. Thanksgiving holidays and the new year are never a busy announcement time for Apple. I can only imagine the focus in Cupertino is on keeping up with demand for holiday shoppers.

This year, however, seems particularly quiet. I can't recall one bit of substantial news that has come out of the company itself since the introduction of iCloud and then Steve Jobs's death. There's been lots of speculation from analysts and the rumour sites about upcoming products.  And there's plenty of quoting, commenting and analyzing of Steve Job's biography.

But, no real news or announcements. In years past, there would always be one or two things to share, mostly related to the early January Macworld Expo, where Steve would provide the keynote and introduce a whole slew of new products for the year.

But Apple stopped participating in Macworld two year ago, subsequently creating some very dull Decembers.

This year feels different. It's a somber hush, as though Apple has chosen to enter a quiet reflection phase. For the first time in a recent memory, employees were given the entire Thanksgiving week off — a rarity during Steve's tenure as CEO.

It makes me think 2012 is going to be very large for the company.

Leaked tidbits suggest a new version of the iPad with a higher resolution screen early in 2012, a newly designed and reworked iPhone for the end of the year and somewhere in the middle, perhaps the much theorized 32 to 55 inch Apple TVs.

But, I suspect there is something more. The iCloud and Siri technologies are only in their infancy and will serve as the foundation for a whole new arena for Apple to play in. I will go out on a limb and say Tim Cook put out the rest and recharge order, not just to mourn their co-founder's passing, but to set the stage for a massive year. The competition is getting fierce, expectations are high and Apple needs to remain invigorated in order to keep imagining and executing fresh products and ideas.

Call it a feeling. It's all quiet at the Cupertino Campus. We'll find out why soon enough.

Beyond The Underdog

RIM is in disarray — so much so that the co-CEO's have graciously announced they are taking a pay cut, reducing their annual salaries to a mere $1.  Apparently this act of self sacrifice is supposed to demonstrate their commitment to the company they founded and remind RIM employees that ritual offerings at all levels will need to be made in order to survive. What it also indicates is that Mr. Balsillie and Mr. Lazaridis unconsciously know their managerial efforts don't deserve much more.


It's been one hard luck story after another for RIM the past few years.  There's an antiquated mobile operating system that needs to be replaced and keeps being delayed, the less than stellar launch of the PlayBook, key executives departing, lowered stock prices, lowered revenues and declining sales (except in Indonesia where the deprived locals apparently love their tiny keyboards and will attack each other to get at them).


Call it failure to execute.  There are those who know how to win with the lead and there are those who know how to win when coming from behind.   While in his prime, more often than not all Tiger Woods had to do was shoot a good opening round, post his name on the top of the leader board and watch the rest of the competition fade away. So huge was his intimidation factor, the other players would resign themselves to playing for second place.  


Conversely, Canadian golfer Mike Weir seems only able to win when coming from behind.  In seven of his eight PGA wins, including the 2003 Masters, Weir rose up from behind on the final day to pull out the championship.  It comes down to a mental outlook.  With everything to lose, Tiger thrived on testing his resolve not to falter.  MIke Weir, with nothing to lose, thrived on pushing himself to make something magical happen and play his way to the top.


RIM is unable to win from behind. In the early 2000's, they were practically the only smartphone game in town. Uncontested, they ruled the roost.  When Apple came along with the iPhone and turned the concept of a smartphone on its head, the real tournament began. Enter Google soon after with their Android efforts and in short order, RIM is looking up at new leaders on the board.


Say what you will about their tactics, but Microsoft knows how to  come from behind.  They thieve, sue, and bludgeon the competition until they get a toehold in the market.  They did it with Windows, they did it with Xbox and they'll do it again with with Windows Phone 7 and their partnership with Nokia.


Like RIM, Apple has never been good at playing from behind. So, they don't bother. Their success comes from studying the playing field and then reinventing the game to one they know they can win.  If ya can't beat 'em, then play something else.

Our stock just dropped what?

Will RIM survive?  I used to think they'd see the winds of change, revamp their products quickly and keep their installed based somewhat intact.  They'd find a way to compete with a decent share of the mobile market and even challenge with some new products.  As a Canadian, I hoped they would.  


But each company report and each press release indicates this won't happen.  The recent excuse of choosing to wait for new chipsets to update their phones smells of desperation and I don't buy it for a moment.  Behind the scenes is a company faltering — lacking vision, disorganized and unable to regroup.  


And for that reason, RIM's co-CEO's need to step aside. Give them credit for inventing the smartphone market and creating a worldwide buzz.  But now faced with dominant competition, its glaringly apparent they don't know how to win coming from behind.  


Give it to someone who can.

3-2-1 Go!

At first, it feels like any high dive into a pool. Until I pick up terrific speed. For three seconds, I hurtle towards earth — the very meaning of 'plummet.' Blood rushes to my head, making it very heavy.

This could be a huge mistake.

Full article

End Game

I'm going to destroy Android, because it's a stolen product. I'm willing to go thermonuclear war on this. I will spend my last dying breath if I need to, and I will spend every penny of Apple's $40 billion in the bank, to right this wrong. — Steve Jobs.

Peace not war — there's an app for that...

One thing I noted while reading Walter Isaacson's biography of Steve Jobs was the amount of anger residing in Apple's CEO.  It's no wonder he developed cancer.  You can't have that much vitriol and rage swarming about without throwing a big cluster of cells out of balance.  And this from a man who considered himself a follower of Zen. Apparently, no one told Steve the Zen monks all signed a treaty banning thermonuclear warheads a few years ago.

Meanwhile, the war between Apple and Google rages on. Today in Germany, Motorola (now owned by Google) won an injunction against the iPhone and iPad.  Apple is appealing a denied injunction against the Samsung Galaxy in the US.  Samsung uses the Android OS and for some reason Apple prefers to fire the legal cannons at them instead of taking on Google directly.

When the lawsuits first began, I understood it.  Apple was drawing a line in the sand, something they didn't do years ago until it was too late with Microsoft and Windows.  They were letting every tech company know they would not stand for outright pirating of their ideas and work.  "If you're going to try it, then lawyer up.  We have the money, we have the resources.  Be very sure you want to go down this road with us."

Fair enough.  But, what if you come up against another company like Google and/or Samsung who have the funds and lawyers to keep this battle going indefinitely?  Then it becomes a ridiculous war of attrition.  And how's it going to end?  Ten year from now, there will be settlements, agreements, payments and very rich lawyers.  Everyone will scratch their heads and try to remember how things got this far along in the first place.

I have no doubts Google stole the look and feel of iOS and the iPhone.  They may have been working on a mobile OS before Apple, but there is little doubt Eric Schmidt got a gander at the iPhone and iOS at an Apple board meeting and rushed back to the Google headquarters with a stop the presses order.  "We got it all wrong, boys.  Think scrolling.  Think pinching.  Think fart apps!"

I used to pull brawling kids apart in the schoolyard and there would always be one who'd point and say, "He started it!  To which I'd respond, "Well, you end it."  To Tim Cook and Apple I say, end it. Steve Jobs is gone now.  This was his rage, his thermonuclear war.  Find an acceptable middle ground, sign the documents and move on.  It is inevitable other companies will copy what you are doing,  That is the downside of being an innovator.  You come up with it, others see how genius it is and they steal it.

Keep the legal team on high alert.  Win the battles you can.  But, when it gets out of hand, like it is now, it's time for cooler heads to prevail.  Maintain the focus on innovation, progression and making sure your products remain the very best they can be.

Success will triumph.

UPDATE: Apparently the make peace/money not war sentiment is growing...

Tiger Woods is back?

The Days Of Doubting Tiger Are Over (Globe & Mail)

Don't believe it.  

I will concede his game looks much better than it did four months ago when he flamed out and missed the cut at the PGA Championship. 

The one aspect of his game that looks devastatingly wicked is the long irons.  After watching his rounds during the Australian Open, The President's Cup and the Chevron Challenge (thank God for the PVR and fast forward) it was the long iron shots that caught my attention.  More than a few times, outside of 175 yards, he'd put the ball within 10 feet of the cup, setting up an eagle/birdie try.  In fact, I think  he's better from outside 175 yards than he is from inside 100.  His wedge game looks weak — watch the footage from his recent rounds and repeatedly he hits his wedge shots long or short.  But then the wedges have always been an issue, even before the implosion of his personal life and game.  

Last weekend's Chevron Challenge is Tiger's own tournament, set up to support his foundation.  It also feels set up to ensure Tiger gets lots of TV time.  Thus the small 18 man field consisting of Tiger's pals who know their role — make the host look good.  It reminds me of when a boxing promoter will line up a string of lame duck fighters for the champ to mow down after winning the title crown.

Whoops, another errant drive...  FORE RIGHT!

Except, Tiger's no longer wears the belt.  

Two reasons why:

The Driver — I think I counted three holes per round when he'd pull out the driver during the Aussie Open and during the Chevron, it was the same — three holes.  As long as he doesn't hit the driver, he can compete.  I want to see him in a real tournament where he has to use the driver 12-14 times.   It's always been hit and pray when the head cover comes off the driver.  Let's see how often he keeps the ball in the fairway then.

The Quality Of The Field — As the Globe & Mail smartly pointed out, the Chevron Challenge is hardly a top quality field.   It's also the end of the season, when most of the players are winding down.  Tiger, on the other hand, after a long lay off and three straight events, is starting to peak.  

Let's see how things unfold when Rory McIlroy, Luke Donald and Adam Scott show up, when everyone is geared up to play for something meaningful and when Tiger can't punch an iron off the tee at every hole.

Then we'll see if the cat's roar is really back.